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Let's presume Sir Keir Starmer desires to win the next election. Let's likewise assume he has no desire to be changed as Prime Minister in the next year or so by Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or anyone else.

He's a politician, after all, and politicians enjoy power - Starmer more than many, I would think. I likewise recommend that he's at least averagely smart, and must have the ability to weigh up the possibilities of any policy being successful.
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After the battles, compromises and embarrassments associated with attaining high office, Starmer has no objective of tossing everything away. Why, then, does he show every sign of doing so?

On the single problem that might matter most to a bulk of citizens, he is speeding towards particular disaster, while rejecting himself any possibility of an escape path. I indicate the boats coming throughout the Channel.

Numbers of migrants doing the 21-mile journey are up by 42 per cent on the exact same period in 2015. An analysis by The Times, using similar modelling as Border Force, forecasts that 50,000 people will cross the Channel in little boats in 2025. That would be a yearly record - and a stonking ordeal for Sir Keir.

Peering into his mind, I reckon there are 2 main possible descriptions for his behaviour. One is that he is misguiding himself. He truly believes numbers will come down when the steps he has actually taken start to work.

If Starmer still thinks that his policies - tossing numerous millions at the French authorities, enhancing intelligence and utilizing enhanced law enforcement powers - will minimize the numbers, that actually is the accomplishment of hope over experience. The other possibility is that he is already starting poorly to understand that his stratagems will not bear much, if any, fruit. So he and the Government have decided to pull the wool over our eyes. A deadly method.

There have actually been two such examples in recent days. Having stated in an online post on Monday that he felt 'upset' about the numbers crossing the Channel (how does he believe the rest people feel !?) the PM made a slippery claim.

Sir Keir Starmer now has nothing formidable in his locker, Stephen Glover writes

Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent out home in the 12 months to March, 3 per cent less than in the previous year

He boasted that 'almost 30,000 individuals' had been gotten rid of from the UK by this Government. Sounds excellent. But in reality this figure describes all kinds of migrants who have no right to be in our nation. Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent out home in the 12 months to March, 3 per cent fewer than in the previous year.

A lie? Good God no! We should not accuse Labour prime ministers, far less Sir Keir Starmer KCB, PC, KC, MP, of telling intentional fibs. Shall we choose an analytical deception?

The other instance of the Government not being entirely directly was the Home Office's claim previously this week that there have been more migrants this year because of . These are called 'red days', when the sea is calm.

But an analysis by my colleague David Barrett in the other day's Mail reveals that in temperate May in 2015 there were 21 'red days' but only 2,765 arrivals, about 1,000 less than last month. In gentle June 2024 there were 20 'red days', though only 3,007 migrants were taped crossing the Channel.

The most probable explanation is that last May and June the Government's plan to send out illegal migrants to Rwanda had lastly cleared persistent judicial obstruction. Some, at least, were prevented from crossing the Channel for fear of being packed off to the central African country.

The Rwanda plan was far from perfect - it was pricey, and responsible to legal difficulty because the country has an authoritarian government - however a minimum of it had some possibility of deterring migrants. The incoming Labour Government discarded its only plausible methods of curbing the boats.

Helpful for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who in a speech tomorrow will undertake to reanimate a plan strikingly comparable to the Rwandan one.

Starmer now has absolutely nothing powerful in his locker. Literally nothing. He can provide more millions to the French government but it won't make much, if any, difference. French cops will still loll around on beaches, thinking of the sand castles they made as kids, as they view migrant boats setting off for Dover.

The fact is that the French will never ever strain themselves since every migrant who leaves their coasts is one less migrant for them to worry about. It is ignorant to think of that they are ever going to be zealous on our behalf.

STEPHEN GLOVER: Keir Starmer is a soft man who can not understand the real wicked Britain is facing

Nor will Sir Keir's concept of enhancing intelligence and law enforcement be definitive. When it comes to Labour's reported intention to tinker with Article 8 of the Human Rights Act so regarding prevent bogus asylum claims, that is welcome, but even if it ends up being law it is unlikely to have much result on overall numbers.

Are the PM and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper starting to stress as they realise they do not have a single policy likely to satisfy their guarantee of 'smashing the gangs'? If they aren't desperate, they jolly well must be.

Three weeks ago, Sir Keir was humiliated after he had applauded talks over Rwanda-style 'return centers' only minutes before his Albanian counterpart, standing a few feet away, dismissed any cooperation.

Maybe the Government will persuade the Kosovans or the North Macedonians to set up some sort of scheme. But if it does, it will take months, if not years, and people will question why Sir Keir cancelled an arrangement that he is at least partially attempting to restore.

I have actually no particular wish to throw Starmer a lifeline however, as I've suggested before, there's one possible course out of the hole he has dug for himself - though it would take massive decision and guts for him to take it.

There are lots of unoccupied British islands off our coast and more afield. Pick among them. Create a camp comparable to those on the Isle of Man that housed alien internees during the War. Build numerous huts - rather than putting up less tough camping tents, as ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe has actually proposed.

Recruit medical professionals and officials to assess claims faster than takes place at present - and then return most migrants to where they came from. The expense of establishing such a camp would be a portion of the ₤ 4.3 billion spent last year on housing migrants and asylum hunters.

Can anybody tell me why not? Few migrants would elegant kicking their heels for months in a camp, however gentle, so it would be a wonderful deterrent. Cross the Channel, and you will be our visitor - on a possibly windy island rather than in a four-star hotel.

Granted, in order to stave off vexatious legal challenges we 'd most likely have to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights, which would be a step too far for our careful Prime Minister.

But he does not have a much better concept. In truth, he hasn't got any concepts at all that are liable to stem the growing varieties of people streaming across the English Channel.

Things can only become worse - and as they do Labour will sink ever lower in public esteem. Does Sir Keir Starmer really wish to be the signatory of his own political death warrant?

RwandaAngela RaynerLabourWes Streeting