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Let's presume Sir Keir Starmer wishes to win the next election. Let's also assume he has no desire to be replaced as Prime Minister in the next year approximately by Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or anybody else.
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He's a politician, after all, and political leaders relish power - Starmer more than a lot of, I would think. I also suggest that he's at least averagely smart, and should have the ability to weigh up the opportunities of any policy prospering.

After the struggles, compromises and embarrassments associated with accomplishing high office, Starmer has no objective of throwing all of it away. Why, then, does he reveal every sign of doing so?

On the single concern that may matter most to a bulk of voters, he is speeding towards particular disaster, while denying himself any prospect of an escape route. I suggest the boats encountering the Channel.

Varieties of migrants doing the 21-mile journey are up by 42 percent on the very same duration last year. An analysis by The Times, utilizing similar modelling as Border Force, predicts that 50,000 individuals will cross the Channel in little boats in 2025. That would be a yearly record - and a stonking fiasco for Sir Keir.

Peering into his mind, I reckon there are 2 main possible descriptions for his behaviour. One is that he is misguiding himself. He truly thinks numbers will come down as soon as the steps he has actually taken start to work.

If Starmer still believes that his policies - tossing hundreds of millions at the French authorities, improving intelligence and using enhanced police powers - will decrease the numbers, that really is the triumph of hope over experience. The other possibility is that he is already starting dimly to understand that his stratagems won't bear much, if any, fruit. So he and the Government have actually chosen to pull the wool over our eyes. A fatal method.

There have been two such examples in current days. Having stated in an online post on Monday that he felt 'upset' about the numbers crossing the Channel (how does he believe the rest of us feel !?) the PM made a slippery claim.

Sir Keir Starmer now has absolutely nothing powerful in his locker, Stephen Glover writes

Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent home in the 12 months to March, 3 percent less than in the previous year

He boasted that 'almost 30,000 individuals' had actually been eliminated from the UK by this Government. Sounds excellent. But in reality this figure describes all kinds of migrants who have no right to be in our country. Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent home in the 12 months to March, 3 per cent fewer than in the previous year.

A lie? Good God no! We should not accuse Labour prime ministers, far less Sir Keir Starmer KCB, PC, KC, MP, of informing deliberate fibs. Shall we settle for an analytical deception?

The other instance of the Government not being completely directly was the Office's claim earlier this week that there have actually been more migrants this year because of balmy weather. These are called 'red days', when the sea is calm.

But an analysis by my colleague David Barrett in the other day's Mail reveals that in temperate May in 2015 there were 21 however just 2,765 arrivals, about 1,000 less than last month. In mild June 2024 there were 20 'red days', though just 3,007 migrants were taped crossing the Channel.

The most possible explanation is that last May and June the Government's strategy to send prohibited migrants to Rwanda had actually finally cleared persistent judicial blockage. Some, a minimum of, were deterred from crossing the Channel for fear of being loaded off to the main African nation.

The Rwanda scheme was far from ideal - it was pricey, and liable to legal obstacle since the nation has an authoritarian government - however a minimum of it had some prospect of deterring migrants. The incoming Labour Government discarded its only plausible means of suppressing the boats.

Helpful for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who in a speech tomorrow will undertake to reanimate a strategy noticeably comparable to the Rwandan one.

Starmer now has nothing powerful in his locker. Literally absolutely nothing. He can offer additional millions to the French government however it won't make much, if any, difference. French authorities will still loll around on beaches, thinking of the sand castles they made as children, as they watch migrant boats setting off for Dover.

The reality is that the French will never strain themselves because every migrant who leaves their coasts is one less migrant for them to worry about. It is ignorant to envision that they are ever going to be zealous on our behalf.

STEPHEN GLOVER: Keir Starmer is a soft man who can not understand the real wicked Britain is facing

Nor will Sir Keir's idea of enhancing intelligence and police be decisive. As for Labour's reported intent to tinker with Article 8 of the Human Rights Act so as to preclude bogus asylum claims, that is welcome, however even if it ends up being law it is not likely to have much result on total numbers.

Are the PM and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper starting to panic as they understand they don't have a single policy most likely to satisfy their promise of 'smashing the gangs'? If they aren't desperate, they jolly well ought to be.

Three weeks ago, Sir Keir was humiliated after he had applauded talks over Rwanda-style 'return hubs' only minutes before his Albanian counterpart, standing a couple of feet away, ruled out any cooperation.

Maybe the Government will convince the Kosovans or the North Macedonians to establish some sort of plan. But if it does, it will take months, if not years, and people will question why Sir Keir cancelled a plan that he is at least partly attempting to revive.

I've no particular wish to throw Starmer a lifeline however, as I have actually recommended before, there's one possible path out of the hole he has dug for himself - though it would take huge decision and courage for him to take it.

There are numerous unoccupied British islands off our coast and further afield. Pick one of them. Create a camp similar to those on the Isle of Man that housed alien internees during the War. Build numerous huts - instead of erecting less durable tents, as ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe has actually proposed.

Recruit medical professionals and authorities to assess claims more quickly than occurs at present - and then return most migrants to where they originated from. The expense of establishing such a camp would be a portion of the ₤ 4.3 billion invested last year on housing migrants and asylum seekers.

Can anybody tell me why not? Few migrants would elegant kicking their heels for months in a camp, nevertheless gentle, so it would be a marvellous deterrent. Cross the Channel, and you will be our visitor - on a potentially windy island rather than in a four-star hotel.

Granted, in order to ward off vexatious legal obstacles we 'd most likely have to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights, which would be an action too far for our cautious Prime Minister.

But he does not have a much better idea. In fact, he hasn't got any concepts at all that are responsible to stem the growing numbers of individuals streaming throughout the English Channel.

Things can just get even worse - and as they do Labour will sink ever lower in public esteem. Does Sir Keir Starmer really want to be the signatory of his own political death warrant?

RwandaAngela RaynerLabourWes Streeting