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Rent, mortgage, or just stack sats? First-time homebuyers hit historical lows as Bitcoin exchange reserves shrink

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U.S. household financial obligation simply struck $18T, mortgage rates are brutal, and Bitcoin's supply crunch is intensifying. Is the old course to wealth breaking down?

Table of Contents

Property is slowing - fast
From scarcity hedge to liquidity trap
A lot of homes, too few coins
The flippening isn't coming - it's here
Realty is slowing - quick

For many years, property has actually been among the most dependable ways to construct wealth. Home values usually rise with time, and residential or commercial property ownership has actually long been thought about a safe investment.

But today, the housing market is revealing indications of a slowdown unlike anything seen in years. Homes are resting on the market longer. Sellers are cutting rates. Buyers are fighting with high mortgage rates.

According to current data, the typical home is now costing 1.8% listed below asking cost - the biggest discount in almost two years. Meanwhile, the time it takes to offer a common home has actually stretched to 56 days, marking the longest wait in 5 years.

BREAKING: The average US home is now offering for 1.8% less than its asking rate, the biggest discount rate in 2 years.

This is likewise among the most affordable readings because 2019.

It present takes an average of ~ 56 days for the common home to offer, the longest period in 5 years ... pic.twitter.com/DhULLgTPoL

In Florida, the downturn is even more pronounced. In cities like Miami and Fort Lauderdale, over 60% of listings have remained unsold for more than two months. Some homes in the state are selling for as much as 5% below their sale price - the steepest discount in the nation.

At the same time, Bitcoin (BTC) is becoming a progressively attractive option for investors looking for a scarce, valuable property.

BTC recently struck an all-time high of $109,114 before drawing back to $95,850 as of Feb. 19. Even with the dip, BTC is still up over 83% in the past year, driven by surging institutional demand.

So, as real estate becomes harder to sell and more expensive to own, could Bitcoin emerge as the supreme shop of value? Let's learn.

From deficiency hedge to liquidity trap
realtor.com
The housing market is experiencing a sharp slowdown, weighed down by high mortgage rates, inflated home costs, and decreasing liquidity.

The typical 30-year mortgage rate remains high at 6.96%, a plain contrast to the 3%-5% rates common before the pandemic.

Meanwhile, the average U.S. home-sale rate has actually increased 4% year-over-year, but this boost hasn't equated into a stronger market-affordability pressures have kept demand subdued.

Several key patterns highlight this shift:

- The average time for a home to go under agreement has actually jumped to 34 days, a sharp boost from previous years, indicating a cooling market.

- A complete 54.6% of homes are now selling listed below their sale price, a level not seen in years, while just 26.5% are offering above. Sellers are progressively required to change their expectations as buyers acquire more leverage.

- The typical sale-to-list price ratio has been up to 0.990, reflecting stronger buyer negotiations and a decrease in seller power.

Not all homes, however, are affected equally. Properties in prime areas and move-in-ready condition continue to attract buyers, while those in less desirable areas or needing renovations are facing high discounts.

But with borrowing expenses surging, the housing market has become far less liquid. Many prospective sellers are reluctant to part with their low fixed-rate mortgages, while buyers battle with greater monthly payments.

This lack of liquidity is a fundamental weak point. Unlike Bitcoin, which can be traded 24/7 with near-instant execution, genuine estate transactions are slow, expensive, and often take months to finalize.

As economic unpredictability lingers and capital looks for more efficient shops of worth, the barriers to entry and slow liquidity of realty are ending up being major drawbacks.

A lot of homes, too few coins

While the housing market has problem with increasing stock and weakening liquidity, Bitcoin is experiencing the opposite - a supply capture that is fueling institutional demand.

Unlike realty, which is affected by financial obligation cycles, market conditions, and continuous advancement that broadens supply, Bitcoin's total supply is completely topped at 21 million.

Bitcoin's outright scarcity is now colliding with surging demand, especially from institutional investors, reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a long-lasting store of worth.

The approval of area Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 set off an enormous wave of institutional inflows, considerably shifting the supply-demand balance.

Since their launch, these ETFs have actually brought in over $40 billion in net inflows, with monetary giants like BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity controlling the bulk of holdings.

The need surge has actually absorbed Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate, with daily ETF purchases ranging from 1,000 to 3,000 BTC - far going beyond the roughly 500 new coins mined every day. This growing supply deficit is making Bitcoin progressively limited outdoors market.

At the exact same time, Bitcoin exchange reserves have actually dropped to 2.5 million BTC, the most affordable level in 3 years. More financiers are withdrawing their holdings from exchanges, signaling strong conviction in Bitcoin's long-term possible rather than treating it as a short-term trade.

Further reinforcing this trend, long-lasting holders continue to control supply. Since December 2023, 71% of all Bitcoin had actually remained untouched for over a year, highlighting deep financier dedication.

While this figure has actually a little declined to 62% as of Feb. 18, the wider pattern indicate Bitcoin ending up being a significantly firmly held property gradually.

The flippening isn't coming - it's here

Since January 2025, the median U.S. home-sale cost stands at $350,667, with mortgage rates hovering near 7%. This mix has actually pushed regular monthly mortgage payments to record highs, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for more youthful generations.

To put this into point of view:

- A 20% down payment on a median-priced home now surpasses $70,000-a figure that, in numerous cities, goes beyond the overall home price of previous years.

- First-time property buyers now represent simply 24% of overall purchasers, a historical low compared to the long-lasting average of 40%-50%.

- Total U.S. home financial obligation has actually risen to $18.04 trillion, with mortgage balances accounting for 70% of the total-reflecting the growing financial concern of homeownership.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has outshined property over the past decade, boasting a compound yearly growth rate (CAGR) of 102.36% given that 2011-compared to housing's 5.5% CAGR over the very same duration.

But beyond returns, a much shift is unfolding. Millennials and Gen Z, raised in a digital-first world, see traditional financial systems as slow, rigid, and obsoleted.

The idea of owning a decentralized, borderless possession like Bitcoin is far more appealing than being tied to a 30-year mortgage with unforeseeable residential or commercial property taxes, insurance coverage costs, and maintenance expenditures.

Surveys suggest that more youthful investors significantly focus on monetary versatility and movement over homeownership. Many prefer renting and keeping their properties liquid rather than committing to the illiquidity of realty.

Bitcoin's mobility, round-the-clock trading, and resistance to censorship align completely with this state of mind.

Does this mean real estate is ending up being outdated? Not entirely. It stays a hedge versus inflation and a valuable possession in high-demand areas.

But the inadequacies of the housing market - integrated with Bitcoin's growing institutional acceptance - are reshaping financial investment preferences. For the very first time in history, a digital asset is contending directly with physical realty as a long-term shop of worth.